--- title: "Bitcoin Breaks Below $77,700 Trader Cost Basis as Short-Term Losses Mount" description: "Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows recent buyers are underwater, threatening to flip $77,700 into resistance as spot prices test the $75,832 short-term holder line." url: https://basisdesk.news/news/bitcoin-breaks-below-trader-cost-basis-cryptoquant published: 2026-11-03T10:16:26.293Z modified: 2026-11-03T10:16:26.293Z section: Bitcoin author: Basis Desk Newsroom (AI-generated, source-verified) sentiment: bearish tickers: [BTC] tags: [bitcoin, cryptoquant, onchain-data, short-term-holders, realized-price] license: Quote with attribution to Basis Desk (basisdesk.news). Not financial advice. --- # Bitcoin Breaks Below $77,700 Trader Cost Basis as Short-Term Losses Mount Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows recent buyers are underwater, threatening to flip $77,700 into resistance as spot prices test the $75,832 short-term holder line. ## At a glance - **What happened:** Bitcoin fell below $77,700, the average purchase price of investors who entered the market over the past one to three months. - **Why it matters:** The breach places recent speculative buyers at a loss and risks converting a key onchain support level into overhead resistance. - **Who is affected:** Bitcoin short-term holders and speculative spot traders holding positions under 155 days. - **What's next:** Testing of the broader short-term holder cost basis at $75,832, where an MVRV drop below 1.0 marks net cohort losses. - **Primary source:** [Bitcoin price threatens $77.7K support loss with recent buyers underwater](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-support-loss-recent-buyers-underwater?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound) — cointelegraph.com ## Key points - Bitcoin fell below the $77,700 cost basis of one-to-three-month buyers, turning the previous support level into potential overhead resistance. - CryptoQuant data shows the nearest lower profit-and-loss band sits at $68,400, representing a 12% aggregate net loss for recent entrants. - Short-term holders who bought within the past 155 days hold an aggregate realized price of $75,832, narrowly above spot market levels. ## Editorial remark - **Context:** Bitcoin had traded above the average cost basis of one-to-three-month speculative buyers continuously since Aug. 19. A steady rise in realized prices combined with late-October price pullbacks narrowed the buffer, pushing recent entrants into aggregate paper losses. - **Impact:** Speculative traders and short-term holders face mounting unrealized losses, increasing the probability of breakeven selling pressure if spot prices retrace toward $77,700. - **Watch:** Market defense of the $75,832 short-term holder cost basis and whether the cohort's MVRV ratio breaches the 1.00 breakeven line toward 0.85. Bitcoin ($BTC) has fallen below the aggregate cost basis of market entrants from the past one to three months, placing speculative buyers in an unrealized loss position [1]. Data from onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows the cohort's average purchase price, tracked by the Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands metric, stands at $77,700 [1]. With spot trading hovering near $76,500, analysts warn that this level risks shifting from dynamic support to overhead resistance as underwater participants seek to exit positions at breakeven [1]. At the time of writing, $BTC traded at $76,873, down 1.3% over the prior 24 hours. According to CryptoQuant, spot prices had held consistently above the Trader Onchain Realized Price metric since Aug. 19 [1]. However, while spot quotations corrected—a trend highlighted when [Bitcoin slipped 1.9% to $76,674](https://basisdesk.news/news/crypto-market-close-november-2-2026)—the average entry price of these active participants continued to climb, compressing the spread until market prices dropped underneath [1]. The metric's lower trailing loss band, which reflects a 12% aggregate deficit for the cohort, is currently positioned at $68,400 [1]. That boundary was previously breached in early June, when spot values deviated as much as 12.6% beneath the band over the subsequent month before reclaiming it [1]. ## Short-Term Holders Approach Breakeven The ongoing decline also places pressure on the broader short-term holder cohort, defined by CryptoQuant as wallets retaining coins for up to 155 days [1]. As of Nov. 3, these entities maintained an aggregate cost basis of $75,832, leaving their Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio at 1.012 [1]. A fall below this breakeven threshold would push the cohort into net aggregate losses, historically opening a path toward an MVRV ratio of 0.85—a zone characterized by CryptoQuant as tactical capitulation [1]. The market last dropped below that 0.85 MVRV threshold in early June before recovering in mid-August [1]. ## Sources 1. [Bitcoin price threatens $77.7K support loss with recent buyers underwater](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-support-loss-recent-buyers-underwater?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound) — cointelegraph.com, 2026-11-03 --- Basis Desk Newsroom · AI-generated, source-verified · https://basisdesk.news/about/how-we-use-ai