--- title: "Bitcoin Holds Near $81,000 as Fed Freezes Rates in Hawkish Split Vote" description: "Deribit implied volatility stayed flat at 37.6 and spot prices edged higher after two Fed policymakers voted for a rate hike." url: https://basisdesk.news/news/bitcoin-holds-fed-hawkish-hold-options-volatility published: 2026-10-28T22:11:25.153Z modified: 2026-10-28T22:11:25.153Z section: Macro & Markets author: Basis Desk Newsroom (AI-generated, source-verified) sentiment: neutral tickers: [BTC, ETH] tags: [federal-reserve, interest-rates, options, derivatives, fomc, inflation] license: Quote with attribution to Basis Desk (basisdesk.news). Not financial advice. --- # Bitcoin Holds Near $81,000 as Fed Freezes Rates in Hawkish Split Vote Deribit implied volatility stayed flat at 37.6 and spot prices edged higher after two Fed policymakers voted for a rate hike. ## At a glance - **What happened:** The Federal Reserve left interest rates at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two members seeking a quarter-point hike. - **Why it matters:** Bitcoin options implied volatility and spot prices barely budged, showing steady market resilience even as December hike expectations climbed past 82%. - **Who is affected:** Crypto options desks, perpetual futures traders, and institutional macro investors tracking dollar liquidity. - **What's next:** The FOMC will convene for its next interest rate decision on Dec. 8–9. - **Status:** announced - **Primary source:** [Bitcoin Shrugs Off a Hawkish Fed as Volatility Bets Barely Budge](https://unchainedcrypto.com/bitcoin-shrugs-off-a-hawkish-fed-as-volatility-bets-barely-budge/) — unchainedcrypto.com ## Key points - The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting for a 25-basis-point rate hike. - Deribit's Bitcoin implied volatility index was virtually unchanged, registering 37.58 after the statement compared to 37.59 prior to the release. - CME FedWatch probability for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 8–9 meeting climbed to 82.6% from 78.3% the previous day. ## Editorial remark - **Context:** The Fed held rates steady one cycle after delivering a rate hike in September 2026, the central bank's first rate increase since 2023, driven by a 3.7% September CPI inflation print. - **Impact:** Derivatives positioning showed reduced funding cost demand on perpetual futures, while options markets priced in a daily move of roughly 2%, absorbing hawkish dissenting votes without widening volatility premiums. - **Watch:** Markets turn to incoming economic data ahead of the two-day FOMC policy decision scheduled for Dec. 8–9, where rate hike odds stand above 82%. Cryptocurrency markets brushed off a hawkish hold by the Federal Reserve on Oct. 28, with spot and derivatives volatility metrics showing muted reaction to tightening monetary prospects [1]. Deribit's DVOL index, tracking 30-day implied volatility on $BTC options, hovered at 37.58 at 4:45 p.m. ET after standing at 37.59 when the decision was published at 2:00 p.m. ET [1]. Spot $BTC prices rose 0.33% to $81,027 on Coinbase during the same interval, while $ETH gained 0.35% to $2,351 [1]. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $81,180. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% [1]. Two voting members—Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack—dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point increase [1]. The committee reiterated in its official statement that inflation "remains elevated," following Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing annual Consumer Price Index inflation reached 3.7% in September [1]. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remarked in his press conference that while broader financial conditions have tightened, he remained "unwilling and unable to call them tight," noting that allocators have grown more selective [1]. ## Rate Hike Expectations Mount Despite the immediate lack of volatility, futures markets ramped up expectations of renewed monetary tightening at year-end [1]. Odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the Dec. 8–9 FOMC meeting climbed to 82.6%, up from 78.3% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch figures [1]. Meanwhile, perpetual futures markets showed a softening in leverage demand: the eight-hour funding rate on Deribit’s Bitcoin perpetuals declined from 0.0074% at 2:00 p.m. ET to 0.0058% at 4:00 p.m. ET [1]. The steady price response stands in contrast to previous macroeconomic shocks, including the June meeting when an earlier hawkish hold under Warsh led to price declines [1]. The resilience also reflects themes seen as [Bitcoin Defends $80,000 Support as Tech Stocks Retreat and Rate Hike Odds Drop](https://basisdesk.news/news/bitcoin-holds-80k-support-rate-hike-odds-recede), indicating that options desks are pricing contained daily moves near 2% rather than sharp macro-driven drawdowns [1]. Attention now shifts to macroeconomic prints leading into the December interest rate decision [1]. ## Sources 1. [Bitcoin Shrugs Off a Hawkish Fed as Volatility Bets Barely Budge](https://unchainedcrypto.com/bitcoin-shrugs-off-a-hawkish-fed-as-volatility-bets-barely-budge/) — unchainedcrypto.com, 2026-10-28 --- Basis Desk Newsroom · AI-generated, source-verified · https://basisdesk.news/about/how-we-use-ai