--- title: "Bitcoin Matches S&P 500 Daily Win Rate for First Time Since March 2025" description: "Glassnode data shows BTC beat equities in 50% of the past 90 trading sessions, alongside historical midterm tailwinds for risk assets." url: https://basisdesk.news/news/bitcoin-win-rate-sp-500-glassnode-midterms published: 2026-11-05T10:46:23.609Z modified: 2026-11-05T10:46:23.609Z section: Macro & Markets author: Basis Desk Newsroom (AI-generated, source-verified) sentiment: bullish tickers: [BTC] tags: [bitcoin, sp-500, glassnode, capriole-investments, macroeconomics, trading] license: Quote with attribution to Basis Desk (basisdesk.news). Not financial advice. --- # Bitcoin Matches S&P 500 Daily Win Rate for First Time Since March 2025 Glassnode data shows BTC beat equities in 50% of the past 90 trading sessions, alongside historical midterm tailwinds for risk assets. ## At a glance - **What happened:** Glassnode data showed Bitcoin matched the S&P 500 by outperforming it in 50% of the past 90 US trading sessions, ending an underperformance streak begun in March 2025. - **Why it matters:** The milestone indicates digital assets are stabilizing relative to equities amid an elevated 0.63 rolling correlation. - **Who is affected:** Crypto asset allocators, macro fund managers, and institutional market participants. - **What's next:** Monitoring whether the session win rate exceeds 50% and tracking equity returns across the three-month post-election window. - **Primary source:** [Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-win-rate-sp-500-us-midterms-stocks-gains?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound) — cointelegraph.com ## Key points - Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by returns in 50% of the past 90 US trading sessions, its highest win rate since March 2025, per Glassnode. - TradingView data reveals a 20-day rolling correlation of 0.63 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, strengthening alongside Treasury debt buybacks. - Capriole Investments noted the S&P 500 averaged a 10.7% three-month gain in past midterm cycles where Democrats swept Congress under a Republican president. ## Editorial remark - **Context:** For most of the past year, Bitcoin lagged the S&P 500 across daily US trading sessions, with the rolling win rate suppressed below 50% since March 2025 as traditional equities outpaced crypto performance. - **Impact:** Portfolio managers and macro allocators tracking cross-asset momentum see narrowing divergence between Bitcoin and benchmark equities, supported by an elevated 0.63 correlation coefficient. - **Watch:** Whether the 90-session win rate breaks and sustains above 50%, alongside equity market returns over the initial three-month post-midterm window. $BTC outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period, according to data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode [1]. The reading, measured through Wednesday, concludes a multi-month period where the cryptocurrency consistently recorded more daily session losses than wins relative to the benchmark US equities index [1]. Glassnode highlighted in its "The Week Onchain" report that the session win rate had remained suppressed below 50% since March 2025 [1]. Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s average per-session gains slightly exceeded those of the S&P 500 during the measured span, reflecting a shift toward parity between the two asset classes [1]. Concurrently, TradingView metrics indicate that the rolling 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached 0.63 [1]. This directional co-movement intensified in August following the US Treasury's expanded debt buyback program, as reported by market observers [1]. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $80,247, maintaining a tight operational link with traditional risk markets following the recent [Bitcoin rebound past $80,000](https://basisdesk.news/news/bitcoin-rebounds-tech-stocks-split-democratic-midterms). ## Midterm History Points to Equity Strength The stabilization in relative performance emerges alongside historical market data tracked by asset manager Capriole Investments following US midterm election outcomes [1]. Historical records across 26 midterm cycles dating back to 1922 show that in seven instances where Democrats secured majorities in both the House and the Senate under a Republican administration, equities delivered sustained upside [1]. Under those specific conditions, the S&P 500 produced average returns of 10.7% over the subsequent three months, 17.5% over six months, and 15.5% across a one-year horizon, Capriole founder Charles Edwards observed [1]. Market participants are monitoring whether Bitcoin's win rate can sustain levels above 50%, which Glassnode identified as the technical benchmark for establishing structural outperformance against traditional equity benchmarks [1]. Continued correlation to macro equity trends means crypto market direction remains partially tied to post-election US market liquidity and equity trajectory [1]. ## Sources 1. [Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-win-rate-sp-500-us-midterms-stocks-gains?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound) — cointelegraph.com, 2026-11-05 --- Basis Desk Newsroom · AI-generated, source-verified · https://basisdesk.news/about/how-we-use-ai