--- title: "Galaxy Research Declares End of Bitcoin Bear Market" description: "Alex Thorn points to onchain metrics and a 50-week moving average reclaim, arguing the asset has entered an accumulation phase." url: https://basisdesk.news/news/galaxy-research-bitcoin-bear-market-ends-accumulation-phase published: 2026-10-26T13:07:07.823Z modified: 2026-10-26T13:07:07.823Z section: Bitcoin author: Basis Desk Newsroom (AI-generated, source-verified) sentiment: bullish tickers: [BTC] tags: [galaxy-digital, alex-thorn, onchain-data, etf, bear-market, technical-analysis] license: Quote with attribution to Basis Desk (basisdesk.news). Not financial advice. --- # Galaxy Research Declares End of Bitcoin Bear Market Alex Thorn points to onchain metrics and a 50-week moving average reclaim, arguing the asset has entered an accumulation phase. ## At a glance - **What happened:** Galaxy Research published a report stating Bitcoin's bear market bottomed in June 2026 and the asset has transitioned into an accumulation phase. - **Why it matters:** Onchain indicators showed market value stayed above realized value throughout the entire correction, reflecting resilient holder behavior and ETF backing. - **Who is affected:** Bitcoin investors, digital asset asset managers, and spot Bitcoin ETF holders. - **What's next:** Investors are watching whether weekly closes sustain above the 50-week moving average level of $76,540. - **Primary source:** [Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy'](https://decrypt.co/381786/bitcoin-bear-market-is-over-galaxy-research-says) — decrypt.co ## Key points - Galaxy Research stated Bitcoin's bear market concluded in June, pointing to five consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week moving average. - Bitcoin's market value stayed above its realized value for the entire downturn, bottoming at an MVRV ratio of 1.10. - US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 87,000 BTC since June, while coins inactive for at least five years saw monthly selling cut in half versus 2024. ## Editorial remark - **Context:** Bitcoin experienced a 53% contraction from its October 2025 high to its June 30 low, which Galaxy identifies as the shallowest cyclical correction in the asset's history. - **Impact:** Market participants and institutional allocators gain research support for spot accumulation, though ongoing ETF flow volatility and macroeconomic debt pressures keep short-term sentiment mixed. - **Watch:** Thorn tracks a potential weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently at $76,540, that fails to recover within 30 days as a key invalidation signal. Bitcoin's cyclical downturn ended in June, marking an entry into an accumulation phase, according to a research report released on Oct. 26 by Galaxy Digital [1]. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, concluded that technical indicators and onchain behavior indicate the market is positioned favorably for long-term holders [1]. At the time of writing, $BTC changed hands around $80,124, consolidating after a brief dip below $80,000 recorded over the weekend [1]. Thorn's thesis rests substantially on moving averages and historical cycle durations [1]. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks trading under its 50-week moving average before regaining the threshold in September, logging five consecutive weekly closes above the line through the week ending Oct. 18 [1]. Across four similar instances since 2011 where the average was reclaimed after 20 or more weeks below, prices never closed more than 8.4% below the recovery mark over the subsequent 12 months, eventually reaching new peaks [1]. Furthermore, cycle timing shows that day 916 post-halving aligned with past cyclical bottoms that occurred between 777 and 912 days following a halving event [1]. ## Onchain Data and Structural Inflows Onchain dynamics also reflect a historically mild drawdown [1]. Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization remained above its realized value throughout the entire downturn, with the market-to-realized-value ratio touching a low of 1.10 compared to troughs between 0.56 and 0.75 observed in prior bear markets [1]. The peak-to-trough drop of 53% represented the shallowest cyclical decline on record [1]. Short-term holders registered an average cost basis of $74,811, while the spent-output profit ratio stood at 1.009, reflecting little realized selling pressure from this cohort [1]. Divestment from long-term participants has simultaneously slowed, with coins unmoved for five years or longer exiting portfolios at an estimated rate of 34,000 BTC monthly—roughly half the pace recorded in 2024 [1]. Concurrently, spot exchange-traded funds in the United States accumulated 87,000 BTC since the June low, even after total ETF holdings contracted just 11% during the broader price slump [1]. Broader macroeconomic factors, including $40.44 trillion in US federal debt and elevated Treasury yields, frame the market backdrop as spot funds navigate volatile weekly flows [1]. Galaxy and Thorn both disclosed holdings in Bitcoin [1]. ## Sources 1. [Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy'](https://decrypt.co/381786/bitcoin-bear-market-is-over-galaxy-research-says) — decrypt.co, 2026-10-26 --- Basis Desk Newsroom · AI-generated, source-verified · https://basisdesk.news/about/how-we-use-ai