News · Macro & Markets
Glassnode data shows BTC beat equities in 50% of the past 90 trading sessions, alongside historical midterm tailwinds for risk assets.
Key point 1 of 3
01
Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by returns in 50% of the past 90 US trading sessions, its highest win rate since March 2025, per Glassnode.
Key point 2 of 3
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TradingView data reveals a 20-day rolling correlation of 0.63 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, strengthening alongside Treasury debt buybacks.
Key point 3 of 3
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Capriole Investments noted the S&P 500 averaged a 10.7% three-month gain in past midterm cycles where Democrats swept Congress under a Republican president.
Context
For most of the past year, Bitcoin lagged the S&P 500 across daily US trading sessions, with the rolling win rate suppressed below 50% since March 2025 as traditional equities…
Why it matters
Portfolio managers and macro allocators tracking cross-asset momentum see narrowing divergence between Bitcoin and benchmark equities, supported by an elevated 0.63 correlation…
What to watch
Whether the 90-session win rate breaks and sustains above 50%, alongside equity market returns over the initial three-month post-midterm window.
Sources
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