Bitcoin Matches S&P 500 Daily Win Rate for First Time Since March 2025

$BTC outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period, according to data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode ¹. The reading, measured through Wednesday, concludes a multi-month period where the cryptocurrency consistently recorded more daily session losses than wins relative to the benchmark US equities index ¹. Glassnode highlighted in its "The Week Onchain" report that the session win rate had remained suppressed below 50% since March 2025 ¹.

Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s average per-session gains slightly exceeded those of the S&P 500 during the measured span, reflecting a shift toward parity between the two asset classes ¹. Concurrently, TradingView metrics indicate that the rolling 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached 0.63 ¹. This directional co-movement intensified in August following the US Treasury's expanded debt buyback program, as reported by market observers ¹. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $80,247, maintaining a tight operational link with traditional risk markets following the recent Bitcoin rebound past $80,000.

Midterm History Points to Equity Strength

The stabilization in relative performance emerges alongside historical market data tracked by asset manager Capriole Investments following US midterm election outcomes ¹. Historical records across 26 midterm cycles dating back to 1922 show that in seven instances where Democrats secured majorities in both the House and the Senate under a Republican administration, equities delivered sustained upside ¹. Under those specific conditions, the S&P 500 produced average returns of 10.7% over the subsequent three months, 17.5% over six months, and 15.5% across a one-year horizon, Capriole founder Charles Edwards observed ¹.

Market participants are monitoring whether Bitcoin's win rate can sustain levels above 50%, which Glassnode identified as the technical benchmark for establishing structural outperformance against traditional equity benchmarks ¹. Continued correlation to macro equity trends means crypto market direction remains partially tied to post-election US market liquidity and equity trajectory ¹.