Glassnode: Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $87,700 as 2025 Buyers Seek Breakeven

Bitcoin investors who purchased assets in the latter stages of 2025 have established an aggregate cost basis near $87,700, creating a persistent zone of sell-side resistance, according to analysis by Glassnode published on Oct. 21 ¹. The breakeven levels of underwater cohorts have repeatedly blocked upside momentum throughout 2026 as market participants seek liquidity to exit positions without realizing losses ¹. At the time of writing, $BTC was trading around $83,320, up 2.3% over the prior 24 hours.

Glassnode identified two specific holder bands that have constrained market gains ¹. In November 2025, the spot price lost the six-to-12-month cohort cost basis, which served as resistance during a January 2026 rejection at $97,100 that sent prices down by more than a third ¹. A second cohort—investors holding tokens for one to two years—slipped into aggregate loss in February 2026 when prices fell beneath their $76,900 cost basis ¹. A subsequent May 2026 rebound halted above $82,000 against this cohort's breakeven line, prompting a 25% retracement ¹. That group also increased selling pressure during a rally at the start of October, with their cost basis now situated at $99,500 ¹. The six-to-12-month cost basis currently sits at $87,700, converging with the 2026 annual open at $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average at $87,165 ¹.

Support Congestion Around $80,000

Downside buffers are forming lower on the chart, bolstered primarily by institutional products ¹. Glassnode calculated the aggregate cost basis for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds at $81,500, aligning with heavy order-book liquidity near the psychological $80,000 mark ¹. Previously, spot price behavior exhibited similar sensitivity to macroeconomic pullbacks, as seen when Bitcoin touches $83,000 before pulling back alongside equity volatility.

Should the $80,000 to $81,500 band fail to hold, Glassnode indicated that secondary support lies at Bitcoin's true market mean of $77,500, which tracks the average acquisition price across all secondary markets ¹. Below that level, short-term holder cost basis—representing addresses holding coins for up to six months—currently sits at $74,600 ¹.