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Institutions & ETFs · 1 min read

Bitwise Increases 10-Year Bitcoin Forecast to $1.6M on Expanding Addressable Markets

The asset manager raised its projected 2036 compound annual growth rate to 34.3%, citing a growing institutional market and expanding store-of-value baseline.

Editorial oversight: Julian Mercer, Chief Editor
Bullish
$BTC $73,533 −2.1%

At a glance Announced

What happened
Bitwise revised its 10-year bitcoin forecast upward to $1.6 million by 2036, raising its compound annual growth expectation to 34.3%.
Why it matters
The model demonstrates that institutional market expansion and fiat debasement concerns can drive higher valuation targets even after severe cyclical corrections.
Who is affected
Institutional asset allocators, wealth management advisory platforms, and Bitwise investment clients.
Takes effect
2026-10-28
What's next
Ongoing distribution among wealth platforms like Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch, alongside annual revisions to Bitwise's capital assumptions.
Primary source
experts.bitwiseinvestments.com: Why We’re More Bullish on Bitcoin Now Than Last Year | Bitwise Investments

Key points

  • Bitwise lifted its 2036 bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million from a prior 2035 target of $1.3 million.
  • The 10-year addressable institutional market estimate grew from $216 trillion to $303 trillion, while store of value expanded to $110 trillion.
  • Bitcoin's share of the global store-of-value market reached over 5%, up from under 1% a decade earlier.

Bitwise Asset Management raised its long-term projection for $BTC, forecasting the asset could reach $1.6 million by 2036 in an updated capital market report published on Oct. 28, 2026 1. The update, authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen, increases the firm's prior 10-year projection from $1.3 million by 2035 and lifts its estimated compound annual growth rate from 28.3% to 34.3% 1.

The revision follows a cyclical downturn where bitcoin fell by more than 50% from its peak above $125,000 in October 2025 to a trough below $59,000 in June 2026, amid persistent inflation and macroeconomic pressures 1. Bitwise maintained its assumptions regarding the percentage of target markets the asset would capture, but raised its target price based on expansion in underlying addressable asset pools 1. Specifically, the 10-year projected store-of-value market expanded from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, while the institutional investment segment increased from $216 trillion to $303 trillion 1.

Institutional Adoption and Structural Shifts

According to Bitwise, the asset's structural penetration advanced throughout the market contraction 1. Bitcoin's share of the broader store-of-value market expanded from under 1% ten years ago to more than 5% as of late 2026 1. The paper cited gradual adoption by wealth platforms such as Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo, as well as tentative movement from central banks and sovereign wealth funds, alongside moderating cyclical volatility 1. The peak-to-trough decline of 53% marked a shallower retracement than observed in earlier cycles, while institutional participants sustained allocations during the correction 1.

These market shifts align with broader industry observations as analysts split on Bitcoin year-end outlook as macro headwinds cloud liquidity, particularly as exchange-traded fund inflows slowed relative to previous peaks 1. Bitwise acknowledged hurdles, including investor capital directing primarily into gold during periods of debasement concern and rising correlation between the precious metal and crypto assets 1. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $73,674 amid subdued market conditions.

Questions this story raises

What drove Bitwise's upward revision in its bitcoin forecast?
The revision was primarily driven by larger addressable market sizes, including the store-of-value market expanding to $110 trillion and the institutional market growing to $303 trillion over the next decade.
Did Bitwise increase its market share assumptions for bitcoin?
No, Bitwise kept its projected market share capture assumptions consistent with its prior year's framework.

Sources

  1. [1] Why We’re More Bullish on Bitcoin Now Than Last Year | Bitwise Investments — experts.bitwiseinvestments.com, November 10, 2026

Written by Basis Desk's newsroom system from the primary sources above and machine-verified against them before publication. Market figures marked "at the time of writing" come from live exchange data. Report an error: corrections@basisdesk.news · corrections policy.

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Not financial advice. Basis Desk publishes information, not recommendations. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose what you invest.