BLS to Omit Official Annual CPI Figures Following 2025 Government Shutdown

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report without official 12-month inflation rates for either headline or core measures ¹. The absence of an annual benchmark stems from a 43-day federal government shutdown that occurred between Oct. 1 and Nov. 12, 2025 ¹. During that shutdown, the BLS could not collect price data and never issued an October 2025 index, preventing the agency from calculating official year-over-year percentage changes for October 2026 ¹.

Consensus forecasts project monthly headline CPI to increase by approximately 0.3% in October, moderating from a 0.6% rise in September ¹. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is projected to gain about 0.2% on the month following a 0.3% advance in September ¹. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's real-time nowcast estimates 0.2% monthly advances for both gauges ¹. Because official annual readings are missing, independent analysts have calculated imputed figures ¹. Median estimates from FactSet suggest an imputed annual headline rate of roughly 4.0%, up from 3.7% in September, with imputed core inflation around 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior month ¹.

Implications for Federal Reserve Policy

The October CPI release represents the final consumer price gauge before the Federal Reserve convenes for its interest rate decision in December ¹. The US central bank held its benchmark policy rate steady in October ¹. Without official annual numbers to evaluate progress toward the Fed's 2% target, traders and policymakers are prioritizing the month-over-month core reading ¹. Analysts project upside risks to core components from reinstated tariffs, elevated shipping expenses, lodging, and airfares, which could be partially counterbalanced by declining owners' equivalent rent ¹.

A monthly core figure of 0.3% would likely reignite expectations for restrictive monetary policy, supporting US Treasury yields and the dollar while pressuring risk assets ¹. Conversely, a reading of 0.2% or lower would bolster expectations that the Fed maintains its policy pause ¹. The data arrives as macro volatility continues across digital assets, with $BTC recently testing support levels after previously seeing Bitcoin trade near $74,600 following a $1.2B crypto liquidation wave. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $74,052, down 0.5% over the prior 24 hours.