Bitcoin Holds Near $81,000 as Fed Freezes Rates in Hawkish Split Vote

Cryptocurrency markets brushed off a hawkish hold by the Federal Reserve on Oct. 28, with spot and derivatives volatility metrics showing muted reaction to tightening monetary prospects ¹. Deribit's DVOL index, tracking 30-day implied volatility on $BTC options, hovered at 37.58 at 4:45 p.m. ET after standing at 37.59 when the decision was published at 2:00 p.m. ET ¹. Spot $BTC prices rose 0.33% to $81,027 on Coinbase during the same interval, while $ETH gained 0.35% to $2,351 ¹. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $81,180.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% ¹. Two voting members—Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack—dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point increase ¹. The committee reiterated in its official statement that inflation "remains elevated," following Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing annual Consumer Price Index inflation reached 3.7% in September ¹. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remarked in his press conference that while broader financial conditions have tightened, he remained "unwilling and unable to call them tight," noting that allocators have grown more selective ¹.

Rate Hike Expectations Mount

Despite the immediate lack of volatility, futures markets ramped up expectations of renewed monetary tightening at year-end ¹. Odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the Dec. 8–9 FOMC meeting climbed to 82.6%, up from 78.3% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch figures ¹. Meanwhile, perpetual futures markets showed a softening in leverage demand: the eight-hour funding rate on Deribit’s Bitcoin perpetuals declined from 0.0074% at 2:00 p.m. ET to 0.0058% at 4:00 p.m. ET ¹.

The steady price response stands in contrast to previous macroeconomic shocks, including the June meeting when an earlier hawkish hold under Warsh led to price declines ¹. The resilience also reflects themes seen as Bitcoin Defends $80,000 Support as Tech Stocks Retreat and Rate Hike Odds Drop, indicating that options desks are pricing contained daily moves near 2% rather than sharp macro-driven drawdowns ¹. Attention now shifts to macroeconomic prints leading into the December interest rate decision ¹.