Galaxy Research Declares End of Bitcoin Bear Market

Bitcoin's cyclical downturn ended in June, marking an entry into an accumulation phase, according to a research report released on Oct. 26 by Galaxy Digital ¹. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, concluded that technical indicators and onchain behavior indicate the market is positioned favorably for long-term holders ¹. At the time of writing, $BTC changed hands around $80,124, consolidating after a brief dip below $80,000 recorded over the weekend ¹.

Thorn's thesis rests substantially on moving averages and historical cycle durations ¹. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks trading under its 50-week moving average before regaining the threshold in September, logging five consecutive weekly closes above the line through the week ending Oct. 18 ¹. Across four similar instances since 2011 where the average was reclaimed after 20 or more weeks below, prices never closed more than 8.4% below the recovery mark over the subsequent 12 months, eventually reaching new peaks ¹. Furthermore, cycle timing shows that day 916 post-halving aligned with past cyclical bottoms that occurred between 777 and 912 days following a halving event ¹.

Onchain Data and Structural Inflows

Onchain dynamics also reflect a historically mild drawdown ¹. Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization remained above its realized value throughout the entire downturn, with the market-to-realized-value ratio touching a low of 1.10 compared to troughs between 0.56 and 0.75 observed in prior bear markets ¹. The peak-to-trough drop of 53% represented the shallowest cyclical decline on record ¹. Short-term holders registered an average cost basis of $74,811, while the spent-output profit ratio stood at 1.009, reflecting little realized selling pressure from this cohort ¹.

Divestment from long-term participants has simultaneously slowed, with coins unmoved for five years or longer exiting portfolios at an estimated rate of 34,000 BTC monthly—roughly half the pace recorded in 2024 ¹. Concurrently, spot exchange-traded funds in the United States accumulated 87,000 BTC since the June low, even after total ETF holdings contracted just 11% during the broader price slump ¹. Broader macroeconomic factors, including $40.44 trillion in US federal debt and elevated Treasury yields, frame the market backdrop as spot funds navigate volatile weekly flows ¹. Galaxy and Thorn both disclosed holdings in Bitcoin ¹.