CryptoQuant Flags Dormancy in Older Bitcoin as Long-Term Selling Slows

Long-term $BTC holders have curtailed their onchain spending, signaling early structural shifts that historically preceded major bull runs, according to research from analytics platform CryptoQuant ¹. The proportion of Bitcoin’s realized cap tied to coins unmoved for 18 months or longer stabilized after peaking at 26.98% on Sept. 16, falling slightly to 26.59% ¹. CryptoQuant noted that past cycles demonstrated a consistent recurring trend where an initial drop in this cohort's realized cap share after an extended rise indicated the onset of a broader price rally ¹. At the time of writing, $BTC traded around $79,989, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

The decline in active movement reflects a broader holding strategy among seasoned investors following a protracted retreat from Bitcoin's previous record high of $126,200 ¹. CryptoQuant noted that while long-term investors sustained an uptrend in profit-taking since November 2025, that distribution has started to level out ¹. Across mature cohorts, only holders who acquired coins 18 to 24 months ago sit at an aggregate loss, carrying an average realized cost basis of $93,193 ¹. Older cohorts remain in aggregate profit, leaving 2026 as the first downcycle where spot prices stayed consistently higher than the two-to-three-year cohort's aggregate cost basis ¹. Previously, Glassnode observed similar structural hurdles as earlier buyers sought breakeven thresholds near these bands.

Halving Distribution From Five-Year Holders

Supply dynamics among the oldest market participants have also shifted significantly downward ¹. Research from Galaxy Digital showed that spending from wallets dormant for at least five years dropped to an average of 34,000 $BTC per month in 2026, roughly half the monthly volumes seen during 2024 ¹. That demographic had contributed to a substantial supply overhang after transferring roughly 1.11 million BTC between October 2024 and late 2025, an outflow primarily absorbed by spot exchange-traded funds and corporate digital asset treasuries ¹.

Galaxy Digital classified the drawdown from the $126,200 peak as the shallowest cycle correction on record, recording a maximum contraction of 53% ¹. With spending among five-year holders dropping from 67,000 BTC monthly in 2024 and 47,000 BTC in 2025, market analysts assess that the depletion of vintage liquid supply removes a major headwind for structural recovery, even as CryptoQuant cautions that the cycle reversal remains in its earliest formation ¹.