Bitcoin Breaks Below $77,700 Trader Cost Basis as Short-Term Losses Mount

Bitcoin ($BTC) has fallen below the aggregate cost basis of market entrants from the past one to three months, placing speculative buyers in an unrealized loss position ¹. Data from onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows the cohort's average purchase price, tracked by the Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands metric, stands at $77,700 ¹. With spot trading hovering near $76,500, analysts warn that this level risks shifting from dynamic support to overhead resistance as underwater participants seek to exit positions at breakeven ¹. At the time of writing, $BTC traded at $76,873, down 1.3% over the prior 24 hours.

According to CryptoQuant, spot prices had held consistently above the Trader Onchain Realized Price metric since Aug. 19 ¹. However, while spot quotations corrected—a trend highlighted when Bitcoin slipped 1.9% to $76,674—the average entry price of these active participants continued to climb, compressing the spread until market prices dropped underneath ¹. The metric's lower trailing loss band, which reflects a 12% aggregate deficit for the cohort, is currently positioned at $68,400 ¹. That boundary was previously breached in early June, when spot values deviated as much as 12.6% beneath the band over the subsequent month before reclaiming it ¹.

Short-Term Holders Approach Breakeven

The ongoing decline also places pressure on the broader short-term holder cohort, defined by CryptoQuant as wallets retaining coins for up to 155 days ¹. As of Nov. 3, these entities maintained an aggregate cost basis of $75,832, leaving their Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio at 1.012 ¹. A fall below this breakeven threshold would push the cohort into net aggregate losses, historically opening a path toward an MVRV ratio of 0.85—a zone characterized by CryptoQuant as tactical capitulation ¹. The market last dropped below that 0.85 MVRV threshold in early June before recovering in mid-August ¹.